http://www.tasgall.com/2006/07/12/inverted-yield-curve-at-ing/ Peering into the Cauldron of the Gods... Wed, 28 Sep 2011 10:20:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/07/12/inverted-yield-curve-at-ing/comment-page-1/#comment-43 John Wed, 12 Jul 2006 21:47:26 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/07/12/inverted-yield-curve-at-ing/#comment-43 Mauldin has a ton of info to say about the inverted yield curve. Go to his archive section on www.2000wave.com and check out all the many articles that reference the Yield Curve, his favorite topic. This article in particular is the most interesting to me since it shows the probability of a recession within 1 year based on various inversion levels. Great stuff and a must read (and re-read in times like this): http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo123005 Mauldin has a ton of info to say about the inverted yield curve. Go to his archive section on http://www.2000wave.com and check out all the many articles that reference the Yield Curve, his favorite topic. This article in particular is the most interesting to me since it shows the probability of a recession within 1 year based on various inversion levels. Great stuff and a must read (and re-read in times like this): http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo123005

]]> http://www.tasgall.com/2006/07/12/inverted-yield-curve-at-ing/comment-page-1/#comment-40 Quicksilver Wed, 12 Jul 2006 13:24:44 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/07/12/inverted-yield-curve-at-ing/#comment-40 Yeah, I've been thinking about writing about the inverted curve but I couldn't think of what to say other than "crap". The last time we had an inverted curve, growth was still strong, comsumption was higher, the rates were lower by .75 and the markets were up. Now? Quite the opposite: PCE dropping, markets under selling pressure. Plus this inversion was in place before the latest rate hike so now it's even more pronounced. What I'm trying to say is that an inverted curve usually means recession on the way. Not always and it didn't last time but last time we weren't seeing growth threatened on so many fronts as now. Double, double toil and trouble. Fire burn and cauldron bubble? Yeah, I’ve been thinking about writing about the inverted curve but I couldn’t think of what to say other than “crap”. The last time we had an inverted curve, growth was still strong, comsumption was higher, the rates were lower by .75 and the markets were up. Now? Quite the opposite: PCE dropping, markets under selling pressure. Plus this inversion was in place before the latest rate hike so now it’s even more pronounced. What I’m trying to say is that an inverted curve usually means recession on the way. Not always and it didn’t last time but last time we weren’t seeing growth threatened on so many fronts as now. Double, double toil and trouble. Fire burn and cauldron bubble?

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