Here is one of the best breakdowns of our current situation that I’ve read.  It is very “Kessler” in style, linking seemingly separate areas of the world in a tangled web.  I’m particularly struck by the mention of buybacks (time to dust off that research again) and the possible leading strength of multinationals who can gain profits from a weak dollar.  Hmmm.  How to get a list of those companies?

It seems that the picture both of his models paint is one of swift movements both down and back up in a relatively short period of time.  I see the scenario of both playing out in sequence as being perfectly plausible given the sense of spring-loading that I get from the markets now.  It’s getting tighter and tighter.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the net outcome for the next two years is breakeven for “buy and hold”-ers of equities.  But with some timing, there could be great inflection points for positioning a portfolio.