Back in a previous post, I linked to a web page that will calculate the odds of a recession based on research by the Federal Reserve.

The inputs for the calculation are the yields for the 10 year bond, 3 month bond, and the Fed Overnight rate.  Unfortunately I’m too lazy to want to go plug those things in regularly, so I threw together a little script that would automatically download the rates and do the calculation for me.  I’ve created a new page on this blog that contains the script:  Recession Calculator.  I have also added the page to my Daily News Briefing.

It’s worth noting that this model does underestimate the real odds of a recession.  Also, all three rates are inverted right now.