Comments on: Amaranth, Rosemary and Tears http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/ Peering into the Cauldron of the Gods... Wed, 28 Sep 2011 10:20:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jason G. http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/comment-page-1/#comment-218 Jason G. Thu, 28 Sep 2006 15:40:26 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/#comment-218 I beleive I read in a news article or two that they were using options, so the futures and options COT should give even more intersting information... I beleive I read in a news article or two that they were using options, so the futures and options COT should give even more intersting information…

]]> By: Quicksilver http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/comment-page-1/#comment-216 Quicksilver Thu, 28 Sep 2006 13:03:27 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/#comment-216 Good question. Initially I grabbed the futures only numbers but I should make the effort to check the futures+options numbers too. Good question. Initially I grabbed the futures only numbers but I should make the effort to check the futures+options numbers too.

]]> By: Jason G. http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/comment-page-1/#comment-215 Jason G. Wed, 27 Sep 2006 23:44:12 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2006/09/27/amaranth-rosemary-and-tears/#comment-215 I think you need to use a bigger font for the comments on your charts... or I need to turn down my screen resolution... ;) I think you read the numbers right. Amaranth was primarily spreading, and the skew at the end had to be from them or the counterparties to their trades. I'm pretty sure that the natural gas market got pushed well past fair value with the unwinding of this trade. At current prices ($7.6 for January, $7.7 for February) it is like the market is predicting 80 degree weather for the entire winter. I can see trend followers jumping on and driving some of the open short interest, but not in that much size. As the next few COT numbers come out, we should see the numbers drop precipitously as contracts expire and the spreads get offset. One question - are you looking at the futures only or the futures and options COT? I think you need to use a bigger font for the comments on your charts… or I need to turn down my screen resolution… ;)

I think you read the numbers right. Amaranth was primarily spreading, and the skew at the end had to be from them or the counterparties to their trades.

I’m pretty sure that the natural gas market got pushed well past fair value with the unwinding of this trade. At current prices ($7.6 for January, $7.7 for February) it is like the market is predicting 80 degree weather for the entire winter. I can see trend followers jumping on and driving some of the open short interest, but not in that much size.

As the next few COT numbers come out, we should see the numbers drop precipitously as contracts expire and the spreads get offset.

One question – are you looking at the futures only or the futures and options COT?

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