Comments on: Singularious http://www.tasgall.com/2007/07/15/singularious/ Peering into the Cauldron of the Gods... Wed, 28 Sep 2011 10:20:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Jason G. http://www.tasgall.com/2007/07/15/singularious/comment-page-1/#comment-379 Jason G. Wed, 18 Jul 2007 06:24:35 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2007/07/15/singularious/#comment-379 This is a very interesting topic... and one that I have pondered a few times in the past. I believe (rightly or wrongly) that we're in a secular bear market right now. This is the same type of 15-20 year market environment that the US has seen in the past following the 1929 crash and the stagflationary environment of the 70s. What I believe is different this time is that the "hardship" we will / are enduring is much less than what markets and society have experienced in past secular bear markets. There was a great dust-bowl in the 30s and millions went starving and without jobs. In the 70s there were oil shortages and the cold war. When we tell our grandchildren about the hardships of the 2000s, it might include such hardships as not being able to afford an unlimited data plan on my cell phone; or having to pay for a spreadsheet program. Millions of people went without health insurance (compare that to millions dying without food or other basic needs like clean water). Thousands die in a war in Iraq (compare that to millions in WWI and WWII). Today poverty is measured by not being able to afford a car rather than not being able to eat. All in all, I think the good times are getting better, and the bad times are getting less bad. If there is a signularity in the human experience or in the financial markets, I believe it will be a tide that will raise all boats. Some will benefit more than others, and most likely the super-rich will reap great benefits as the world approaches a singularity. But the standard of living for everyone would be rising while that happens. Imagine hearing people complain that the richest can afford the best body replacements (or whatever) yet the "poor folk" can only get the model that is 3 months old -- the one that requires manual adjustments instead of automatically reading your mind. The poor person in 30 years will be dramatically better off than the richest people today. So, will I change my plans in anticipation of an approaching singularity? Not really. I am very optimistic about the future of technology and even the US (yes Virginia, you can believe in secular bear markets and still be bullish on the economy...), but I also have to consider the possibility if it doesn't occur. I still believe that risk management is more important than shooting for the moon; just as I try to consistently spend less than I make. If a singularity occurs, I won't be as far up in the food chain as those that went long fully leveraged. But that's a risk I'm willing to take. This is a very interesting topic… and one that I have pondered a few times in the past.

I believe (rightly or wrongly) that we’re in a secular bear market right now. This is the same type of 15-20 year market environment that the US has seen in the past following the 1929 crash and the stagflationary environment of the 70s.

What I believe is different this time is that the “hardship” we will / are enduring is much less than what markets and society have experienced in past secular bear markets. There was a great dust-bowl in the 30s and millions went starving and without jobs. In the 70s there were oil shortages and the cold war.

When we tell our grandchildren about the hardships of the 2000s, it might include such hardships as not being able to afford an unlimited data plan on my cell phone; or having to pay for a spreadsheet program. Millions of people went without health insurance (compare that to millions dying without food or other basic needs like clean water). Thousands die in a war in Iraq (compare that to millions in WWI and WWII). Today poverty is measured by not being able to afford a car rather than not being able to eat.

All in all, I think the good times are getting better, and the bad times are getting less bad.

If there is a signularity in the human experience or in the financial markets, I believe it will be a tide that will raise all boats. Some will benefit more than others, and most likely the super-rich will reap great benefits as the world approaches a singularity. But the standard of living for everyone would be rising while that happens. Imagine hearing people complain that the richest can afford the best body replacements (or whatever) yet the “poor folk” can only get the model that is 3 months old — the one that requires manual adjustments instead of automatically reading your mind. The poor person in 30 years will be dramatically better off than the richest people today.

So, will I change my plans in anticipation of an approaching singularity? Not really.

I am very optimistic about the future of technology and even the US (yes Virginia, you can believe in secular bear markets and still be bullish on the economy…), but I also have to consider the possibility if it doesn’t occur. I still believe that risk management is more important than shooting for the moon; just as I try to consistently spend less than I make.

If a singularity occurs, I won’t be as far up in the food chain as those that went long fully leveraged. But that’s a risk I’m willing to take.

]]> By: John http://www.tasgall.com/2007/07/15/singularious/comment-page-1/#comment-378 John Tue, 17 Jul 2007 12:14:48 +0000 http://www.tasgall.com/2007/07/15/singularious/#comment-378 Even if the singularity that Kurzwiel predicts happens by 2050, it is likely to be prohibitively expensive to fully integrate many of the truly life-altering and life-extending measures for the mass majority of mankind, including Americans. The rich will disproportionately benefit from the new technology, so it's well worth it to take fully advantage of tax-advantaged investment vehicles like 401Ks, IRAs and any other legal tools for maximizing profits (like commission free FOREX!). And regarding a market singularity, there's a high likelihood that a well-heeled, well-informed minority will disproportionately benefit from any near vertical climb in the markets as well. Even if the singularity that Kurzwiel predicts happens by 2050, it is likely to be prohibitively expensive to fully integrate many of the truly life-altering and life-extending measures for the mass majority of mankind, including Americans. The rich will disproportionately benefit from the new technology, so it’s well worth it to take fully advantage of tax-advantaged investment vehicles like 401Ks, IRAs and any other legal tools for maximizing profits (like commission free FOREX!). And regarding a market singularity, there’s a high likelihood that a well-heeled, well-informed minority will disproportionately benefit from any near vertical climb in the markets as well.

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