Thu 26 Jun 2008
If you’re wondering where the next rally will begin (whether you beleive it will be a bear market rally or the next bull market), it is a good idea to watch the VIX index.? As you can see from the chart below, medium-term lows for the SPX (S&P 500 Index) coincide with upward spikes in the VIX.? At current levels, we don’t have a spike, though this isn’t a precise indicator of timing.
You can track the VIX at the usual places.
July 16th, 2008 at 10:32 am
Looks like yesterday may have qualified as a upward spike in the VIX… though if it does mark a short-term bottom, I have to say that probably won’t mark the end of the bear market. My best guess would be a month-or-so long rally before the downtrend continues…