I named this post because of the Peter Principle, which essentially states what the link says it states.? I was reminded of the mention in Running Money of the fund managers who, when they reached a goal for rate of return,?took windfall profits and sat on them so as not to miss their targets for the month.? So my question is, should an investor call it quits during a given timeframe if they hit a good run and, if so, when and for how long?? It’s much like the problem facing?the smart gambler in a casino who knows that the long run spells disaster and so?cashes out after a miracle run of dice.? But the trader is in a wierd spot.? They usually are in the game because they think, in their infinite wisdom,?it is very much not like a casino in that they, not the house,?have?the edge.? So if you all of a sudden have a week where you make enough money in the markets to make for a decent year that even Buffet of Soros would be proud of, should you stop there?? When do you start back up?? I mean aren’t these divisions of time called “quarters” and “years” really just arbitrary as far as the market is concerned (don’t tell your accountant I said that)?? Whose to say you won’t double that return in another week?? Whose to say you won’t lose it all simply based on the reversion to the mean or to your true level of (in)competence?? Even if you do have an edge, its true value may lie somewhere well below the returns you achieved recently, which may have had a healthy does of luck in them.? Normally, you don’t have a benchmark to really tell you where you should be.? In the case of something like the Uberman’s Portfolio, you do know one thing: the amount of the return due to interest vs. directional moves.? So there is a great example.? What would you do if the expected yield from interest for year is estimated at 20-30% and all of a sudden you find your $10,000 account sitting at $12,500 after some lucky market timing (e.g. you rebalance and it just happens to be a major market bottom in your heaviest position)?? You know your model is designed to neutralize market moves but it isn’t perfect so it’s always possible you might catch the right wave (or the wrong one).? This also means that you might revert back to pure interest income any day.? So do you stop right there since you have reached the theoretical annual goal early?? Or do you ride it out and take what you are given in the name of consistency?? You might be on your way to a 100% year, luck?or not,?so why stop?? What about the flipside of all of this, where you experience larger than expected losses?? Is it supposed to make me feel good that most of the sentences in this post are questions?